New How To Analyze A Problem... The Obvious Conclusions Inexperienced Desk Jockeys Brand It At, Or The Thoughtful Scientific Logical Method Of Crusade Together With Resultant - Using Ww2 Bombers
The desk jockeys rubber at abode researched where bombers tend to larn hit, intending to recommend re-enforcing the parts of the bird that larn hitting the most would consequence inward to a greater extent than planes making it back
They industrial plant life that when American planes came dorsum from engagements over Europe, they were covered inward bullet holes. But the harm wasn’t uniformly distributed across the aircraft. There were to a greater extent than bullet holes inward the fuselage, none inward the engines.
The blood-red dots exhibit where bombers were hitting the most, together with so they told the regular army together with plane manufactures to pose to a greater extent than armor on those sections.
Problem?
You don’t desire your planes to larn shot downwards past times enemy fighters,
Solution
together with so yous armor them.
Problem?
But armor makes the plane heavier, together with heavier planes are less maneuverable together with purpose to a greater extent than fuel. Armoring the planes also much is a problem;
armoring the planes also lilliputian is a problem.
Solution
Somewhere inward betwixt there’s an optimum.
You receive got a squad of geniuses (Statistical Research Group) inward New York City is to figure out where that optimum is. Exactly how much to a greater extent than armor belonged on those parts of the plane? That was what they came to Wald for.
Frederick Mosteller, who would after industrial plant life Harvard’s statistics department, was there.
Leonard Savage, the pioneer of determination theory
Norbert Wiener, the MIT mathematician together with the creator of cybernetics, dropped past times from fourth dimension to time. Milton Friedman, the hereafter Nobelist inward economics, was oftentimes the fourth-smartest individual inward the room.
The smartest individual inward the room was ordinarily Abraham Wald, together with he had left Romania because the Nazis wanted to kill all Jewish people.
It wasn’t the answer they got. The armor, said Wald, doesn’t larn where the bullet holes are. It goes where the bullet holes aren’t: on the engines.
- how did yous obtain that data?
- well, nosotros looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a canvas together with collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What yous run into is the consequence of hundreds of those sheets.
- together with your conclusion?
- well, the blood-red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire.
- no. the blood-red dots are where a bomber tin privy receive got a hitting together with return. The bombers that took a hitting to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent inward your data. The blank spots are just where yous receive got to enforce the airframe, together with so those bombers tin privy return.
He got foreign looks, together with so he made it fifty-fifty simpler for the armed forces to empathise (if they were smart, they wouldn't hold out inward the military, run into (and I'm a vet, I know what I'm talking about, smart people locomote out together with create wealth, the residue of the people either larn inward the military, or stay broke))
If yous larn to the recovery room at the hospital, you’ll run into a lot to a greater extent than people alongside bullet holes inward their legs than people alongside bullet holes inward their chests. But that’s non because people don’t larn shot inward the chest; it’s because the people who larn shot inward the breast don’t recover.
BTW: You tin privy run into the consequence of this inquiry today. This is the exact argue the A-10 has the airplane pilot sitting inward a titanium armor bathtub together with has it’s engines placed high together with shielded.
https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-to-be-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d#.96xlu66m9
https://dieselpunkisdad.tumblr.com/post/156075043378/survivorship-bias
Abraham Wald was abode schooled until college. No wonder he was brilliant, he never went to USA populace schools run past times the Dept Of Education.
Being a religious Jew, he did non attend schoolhouse on Saturdays, equally was required at the fourth dimension past times the Hungarian schoolhouse system, together with was thence home-schooled past times his parents until college. His parents were quite knowledgeable together with competent equally teachers.
In 1928 he graduated inward mathematics from the King Ferdinand I University.
In 1927, he entered graduate schoolhouse at the University of Vienna, from which he graduated inward 1931 alongside a Ph.D. inward mathematics, Menger, the swell mathematician mentored him.
Despite Wald's brilliance, he could non obtain a academy position, because of Austrian discrimination against Jews.
However, Oskar Morgenstern created a seat for Wald inward economics.
When the Nazis invaded Republic of Austria inward 1938, the discrimination against Jews intensified. In particular, Wald together with his household unit of measurement were persecuted equally Jews.
Wald was able to immigrate to the United States, at the invitation of the Cowles Commission for Research inward Economics, to hand off econometrics research.
His family, all merely a unmarried brother, would after popular off inward Auschwitz, the extermination camp.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Wald
The official cite for the people within the storey was the Statistical Research Group, a cabal of geniuses assembled at the asking of the White House together with made upward of people who would larn on to compete for together with win Nobel Prizes. The SRG was an extension of Columbia University, together with they dealt mainly alongside statistical analysis. The Philadelphia Computing Section, some other grouping made upward alone of women mathematicians, worked vi days a calendar week at the University of Pennsylvania on ballistics tables. Other groups alongside dissimilar specialties were tied to Harvard, Princeton, Brown together with others, eleven inward all, each a leafage at the halt of a novel branch of the authorities created to assist defeat the Axis – the Department of War Math.
https://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/
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